10 to 30 Day Synoptic Outlook

This is something new I’ll add.  Mostly for my own verification purposes, and to detail pattern emergence and decline in what should be an interesting Winter across North America.

First, the time frame begins with us leaving the colder air and below normal temps in the East, but the forecasters at NOAA /CPC aren’t going with very warm anomalies yet thanks to residual blocking, toward early December.  However, it is a classic Nina look for North America as far as temps and precip forecast go. Wetter than average Rockies/Plains  and mostly dry Southeast.to East Coast in the next 14 days ( I take issue early on though with upper low rain far Southeast/coastal plain Wednesday through Friday).

December as a whole is questionable. Climate models didn’t handle November well. And all of them seem to be running too warm over much of North America in this brand new pattern, but the verdict is still out as to how anomalies stack up.  Usually, persistence pays off, but the pattern appears so volatile, that the dual blocking nature of Western Alaska and Greenland repeating and sometimes in tandem will mean extremely changeable conditions….so it’s difficult to decipher the nature of the averages over a longer term. Some days show 10 degrees above normal, even 15 above, others the same amount below (though the below mostly for Ohio Valley, graziing Southeast US), and that’s early December and again likely following strong storm system to develop in the Pacific and cut into Rockies to Plains as first Winter Storm arouind 1st week of December.

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