Very Warm Next Week, Plenty of Rain and Precip West of the Apps. Then Blocking Showing Up In Eastern Canada For March

The animation of the models show the ridge clearly roaring back. Watch as the heights build in the Southeast with a pretty remarkable Southeast ridge through next week. European Ensemble days 7 through 10:

 

As you would imagine with a strong Southeast ridge, systems will ride along the western edge, and after the Saturday storm system, the next round will push slight further west, still with a great Gulf tap, so soaking precip will once again arrive for the Tennessee Valley. This time eventually Texas and Oklahoma, which are drought ridden, will get into the rain (and ice , mixed precip perhaps). Overall , wet times ahead for the states west of the Apps. Muggy still everywhere eastern part of the nation.

Precip through 10 days

Lesser rain amounts will occur in central GA to central and eastern Carolinas and all of Florida under this ridge influence–but the clouds will hang tough very often, esp further inland sections of the Southeast next Week. The clouds will be the only factor to keep temps in somewhat of a check, otherwise, they would soar through the 70s all the way to Kentucky and Virginia in a flow pattern like this. Instead, for now expect 60s to be widespread that far north–but some 70s are certainly coming to the Carolinas and Alabama, Georgia, and even near 80 for part of Alabama and Georgia if any sun really gets going on the afternoons next week.

Typical low level temp anomalies next week, pretty much most of the week. Very warm! About 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

 

However, still many clouds around with high precipitable waters and  Gulf flow. Tuesday and Wednesday cloud forecast.

At this point mid next week, it will have made well over  a week that some areas were socked in with clouds most of the time. Depressing. But that’s the price we pay in Winter for having a Southeast ridge and a strong , active Southwest flow aloft, which is exactly what we have.  Also, this is the opposite of the Dec-Jan pattern of cold, mostly dry, northwest , sunny flow. See how nature swings the other way many times? Which brings us to the next big switch , which is starting to show up, but isn’t clear yet.

The CFS and GFS long range shows the northern hemisphere undergoing a big change aloft, as the SSW event is fully underway and may be the impetus to set up blocking I’m not sold yet on where it happens, but the CFS for days now has been showing this:  Greenland and overall expansive Canada blocking, working down from the Arctic and from Russia, across the North Pole.  As always though, the models can be way off here, but now that I’ve seen this a while atleast, it has some merit and it fits the pattern of massive changeups we ‘ve seen this season, so odds are for a Colder March, than February. No guarantees but that’s usually the time line following a strong SSW event  the lag effects are usually weeks, similar to the length of the strong Western Ridge. This time though, we’ll have the net effect of having our southern most storm track of the season, as  a deep trough still persists out west for  awhile, and a sinking storm track in the Eastern US, forced further south thanks to strong surface and aloft big highs up north in Canada and Greenland if this works out . Its a ways off though, so I think we’re not set in stone yet, but the trend is for big time blocking somewhere near eastern Canada, Hudson Bay or Greenland. That hasn’t happened in Winter, in many years now. We’re due. But just because we’re due doesn’t mean it happens yet–the last few Springs have shown this, but getting it in the first Half of March is a whole new ballgame if you’re wanting to see more snow chances anywhere in the Southeast and esp the MidAltantic

CFS height pattern first week of March

Temps first and second week (anomalies). Interesting to note that if blocking of that degree happens, then the colder anomalies would probably grow even colder than shown. We’ll see how it shakes out.

Temps respond to the suppressed storm track

 

So For now, just keep the long range idea of “change” in the back of your mind. This type of flip may occur, or may not , but so far it fits the bill of our seasonal change ups and once we know for sure that blocking of that magnitude occurs, then it will be much more of a lock. Even without it though, obviously we’re still in Winter and some changes and freezing weather lies ahead in most March months, but with a suppressed storm track , one loaded with Pacific energy forced very far to the South in late Winter, despite high sun Angle–there can be more Winter precip. I’m not guaranteeing that yet, but the odds would certainly favor it in a flow like this. So beware next week, when you get that urge to start any type of gardening or Spring planting. March can bring Winter Storms and hard freezes.